Chris Harris, PhD
1 min readApr 22, 2024

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It's important to note that in mining and minerals, concepts like "proved" are conservative and are nearly always underestimates when estimated by responsible firms, as the article you quote goes on to say.

Rystad themselves state in October 2023 that a more realistic guess is that 1,300 billion barrels are recoverable by 2100 at $50 a barrel, and interestingly enough that it would contribute only 0.2 degrees C to global warming, most of which is caused by coal for industry and electricity and, in the short run, by methane-generating agricultural practices and methane leaks.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/recoverable-oil-reserves-billion-barrels-warming-planet

This suggests that we don't need to worry about oil too much but definitely need to accelerate a shift to renewable electricity and the electrification of industrial processes (plus nuclear perhaps) while at the same time the future is not looking so great for cows or even natural gas.

This will likely involve net energy descent, if only for thermodynamic reasons in the sense that coal fired power stations are about 50% efficient and internal combustion engines less so.

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Chris Harris, PhD
Chris Harris, PhD

Written by Chris Harris, PhD

I am an urban historian from Aotearoa New Zealand. With an engineering background, I also have a PhD in planning and economics.

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